---
title: "2026-04-15"
type: daily
slug: daily/2026-04-15
date: 2026-04-15
---

# Wednesday 2026-04-15

Coffee with alice-example this morning. She's pushing hard on the
acme-example pricing change — wants to move enterprise tier 40% by end of
quarter. I think that's too aggressive. The data doesn't support it yet
and we'd be optimizing on noise.

Meeting with the widget-co team in the afternoon. They're talking about
international expansion in 2027. I'm skeptical — their unit economics in
the home market aren't where they need to be, and international expansion
right now would compound the burn problem. I told them so. We'll see if
they listen.

Late afternoon journal: I keep coming back to the same pattern. Founders
who pivot late tend to do better than founders who pivot early, in this
batch at least. Maybe it's selection bias — only the founders with deep
customer instinct survive long enough to pivot late. Either way, it's a
heuristic I'm tracking.

One more bet I want to log: I think the next 12 months will see at least
two of the fund-b portfolio companies fold. Their thesis hasn't worked
out and the LPs are getting restless. Moderate conviction, ~0.6.

Random small prediction: the AI conference circuit will quiet down by
late 2026 as the actual revenue numbers start coming in. People are going
to start asking hard questions about retention.
