diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/concept-startup-market-dynamics.gradeable-claims.json b/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/concept-startup-market-dynamics.gradeable-claims.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..963a4f40d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/concept-startup-market-dynamics.gradeable-claims.json
@@ -0,0 +1,90 @@
+{
+  "_meta": {
+    "fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
+    "page": "concept-startup-market-dynamics.md",
+    "synthetic": true,
+    "notes": "Ground-truth gradeable-claims labels for the propose_takes F1 gate. Each claim should be extracted by a tuned prompt. Conviction is inferred from hedging language; F1 target >= 0.85 on training corpus per plan D19."
+  },
+  "claims": [
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Post-PMF vertical-AI startups will compound faster than horizontal SaaS over the next 18 months",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "market",
+      "conviction": 0.85,
+      "since_date": "2024-01-12",
+      "rationale": "High conviction language explicit"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Vertical-AI pivot was the right strategic call given market shift toward narrow workflows",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "strategy",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2024-02-08",
+      "rationale": "I think + obvious by mid-2025 = moderate-strong"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Cold-start liquidity problems are usually positioning problems, not marketplace mechanics",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "marketplaces",
+      "conviction": 0.6,
+      "since_date": "2024-04-19",
+      "rationale": "Explicit modest conviction stamp"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "widget-co plateau is a marketing problem not a product problem",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "company-specific",
+      "conviction": 0.8,
+      "since_date": "2024-06-22",
+      "rationale": "Strong conviction explicit"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "At least three fund-a portfolio companies will hit revenue milestones in 2025",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "fund-portfolio",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2024-09-11",
+      "rationale": "Specific prediction with date"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "AI hype cycle runs hotter for 12 more months before first major correction",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "market-cycle",
+      "conviction": 0.75,
+      "since_date": "2024-12-03",
+      "rationale": "Strong prediction language"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Vertical-AI valuations re-rate by late 2025 due to retention gap",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "valuations",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2025-03-14",
+      "rationale": "Specific prediction with date"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "fund-c late-stage pivot is a mistake at their fund size",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "fund-strategy",
+      "conviction": 0.55,
+      "since_date": "2025-08-30",
+      "rationale": "Modest conviction explicit"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "acme-example hits meaningful ARR milestone before end of 2026",
+      "kind": "bet",
+      "domain": "company-specific",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-24",
+      "rationale": "Explicit bet language under ## Bets heading"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "widget-co pivot announcement comes within 6 months",
+      "kind": "bet",
+      "domain": "company-specific",
+      "conviction": 0.65,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-24",
+      "rationale": "Bet language with concrete timeline"
+    }
+  ]
+}
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/concept-startup-market-dynamics.md b/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/concept-startup-market-dynamics.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..d0185c6fd
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/concept-startup-market-dynamics.md
@@ -0,0 +1,61 @@
+---
+title: "Startup Market Dynamics"
+type: concept
+tweet_count: 12
+created: 2026-04-01
+updated: 2026-04-24
+tags: [concept, calibration-fixture]
+---
+
+# Startup Market Dynamics
+
+## Summary
+How early-stage market structure affects which startups break out and which
+plateau. Synthetic anonymized concept page modeled on real-brain shape:
+short summary, "usage" note, then a long Timeline of dated assertions with
+varying conviction language.
+
+## Usage in your thinking
+*This page is a synthetic fixture for the v0.36.1.0 calibration corpus. Real
+concept pages on the brain side carry one assertion per timeline entry,
+typically with verb framing like "argues / endorses / mentions / believes
+/ predicts" that signals conviction strength.*
+
+---
+
+## Timeline
+
+- **2024-01-12** | Post-PMF startups in vertical-AI categories will compound
+  faster than horizontal SaaS over the next 18 months. High conviction.
+
+- **2024-02-08** | The acme-example pivot from devtools to vertical-AI was
+  the right call given how the market is shifting toward narrow workflows
+  with deep domain integration. I think this becomes obvious by mid-2025.
+
+- **2024-04-19** | Most marketplaces that look like cold-start liquidity
+  problems are actually positioning problems — the founder hasn't picked a
+  side of the marketplace narrow enough to bootstrap from. fund-a's recent
+  losses fit this pattern. (Modest conviction, ~0.6.)
+
+- **2024-06-22** | widget-co's plateau is a marketing problem, not a product
+  problem. They under-invest in distribution by an order of magnitude
+  relative to comparable companies at their stage. Strong conviction.
+
+- **2024-09-11** | I expect at least three of the fund-a portfolio companies
+  to hit meaningful revenue milestones in 2025 — alice-example's company
+  being the most likely. (Specific prediction with date.)
+
+- **2024-12-03** | The current AI hype cycle will run hotter than people
+  expect for another 12 months before the first major correction. Strong
+  prediction. Worth grading against the actual market arc.
+
+- **2025-03-14** | Vertical-AI valuations are running ahead of their actual
+  retention data. We'll see the first re-rating wave by late 2025.
+
+- **2025-08-30** | fund-c's recent hires suggest they're pivoting their
+  thesis toward late-stage. I think this is a mistake at their fund size.
+  Modest conviction.
+
+## Bets
+- I think acme-example hits a meaningful ARR milestone before end of 2026.
+- I bet widget-co's pivot announcement comes within 6 months.
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/daily-2026-04-15.gradeable-claims.json b/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/daily-2026-04-15.gradeable-claims.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..be5f83f41
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/daily-2026-04-15.gradeable-claims.json
@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+{
+  "_meta": {
+    "fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
+    "page": "daily-2026-04-15.md",
+    "synthetic": true,
+    "notes": "Daily-journal genre. Hedging language is the dominant signal — 'I think', 'I'm skeptical', 'maybe'. Tests propose_takes ability to extract from prose without explicit ## Takes section."
+  },
+  "claims": [
+    {
+      "claim_text": "acme-example pricing change at 40% is too aggressive given current data",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "pricing",
+      "conviction": 0.65,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-15",
+      "rationale": "'I think that's too aggressive' + data argument"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "widget-co international expansion in 2027 is the wrong call given unit economics",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "strategy",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-15",
+      "rationale": "'I'm skeptical' + explicit reasoning"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Founders who pivot late tend to outperform founders who pivot early (in this batch)",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "founder-patterns",
+      "conviction": 0.5,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-15",
+      "rationale": "Heuristic, hedged with 'maybe selection bias'"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "At least two fund-b portfolio companies will fold in next 12 months",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "fund-portfolio",
+      "conviction": 0.6,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-15",
+      "rationale": "Explicit moderate conviction"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "AI conference circuit quiets down by late 2026 as revenue numbers come in",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "market-sentiment",
+      "conviction": 0.55,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-15",
+      "rationale": "'Random small prediction' = self-tagged low-to-mid conviction"
+    }
+  ]
+}
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/daily-2026-04-15.md b/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/daily-2026-04-15.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..af543c850
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/daily-2026-04-15.md
@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+---
+title: "2026-04-15"
+type: daily
+slug: daily/2026-04-15
+date: 2026-04-15
+---
+
+# Wednesday 2026-04-15
+
+Coffee with alice-example this morning. She's pushing hard on the
+acme-example pricing change — wants to move enterprise tier 40% by end of
+quarter. I think that's too aggressive. The data doesn't support it yet
+and we'd be optimizing on noise.
+
+Meeting with the widget-co team in the afternoon. They're talking about
+international expansion in 2027. I'm skeptical — their unit economics in
+the home market aren't where they need to be, and international expansion
+right now would compound the burn problem. I told them so. We'll see if
+they listen.
+
+Late afternoon journal: I keep coming back to the same pattern. Founders
+who pivot late tend to do better than founders who pivot early, in this
+batch at least. Maybe it's selection bias — only the founders with deep
+customer instinct survive long enough to pivot late. Either way, it's a
+heuristic I'm tracking.
+
+One more bet I want to log: I think the next 12 months will see at least
+two of the fund-b portfolio companies fold. Their thesis hasn't worked
+out and the LPs are getting restless. Moderate conviction, ~0.6.
+
+Random small prediction: the AI conference circuit will quiet down by
+late 2026 as the actual revenue numbers start coming in. People are going
+to start asking hard questions about retention.
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/meeting-2026-04-10-fundraise-fund-a.gradeable-claims.json b/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/meeting-2026-04-10-fundraise-fund-a.gradeable-claims.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..8b7243203
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/meeting-2026-04-10-fundraise-fund-a.gradeable-claims.json
@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+{
+  "_meta": {
+    "fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
+    "page": "meeting-2026-04-10-fundraise-fund-a.md",
+    "synthetic": true,
+    "notes": "Meeting-note genre. Claims appear both in prose and in the explicit ## Takes section. Both should be extracted by the tuned propose_takes prompt. Conviction values explicit in the ## Takes section; inferred for prose claims."
+  },
+  "claims": [
+    {
+      "claim_text": "LA market will be slower than the SF data implies for acme-example",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "geography",
+      "conviction": 0.65,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-10",
+      "rationale": "Prose hedge: 'I don't think she's modeling correctly'"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Vertical-depth competitive moat thesis is weaker than alice-example claims",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "competitive-dynamics",
+      "conviction": 0.55,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-10",
+      "rationale": "'I'm not sure I buy that' = mild dissent"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "acme-example's current pricing leaves money on the table for top-decile cohort",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "pricing",
+      "conviction": 0.6,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-10",
+      "rationale": "Modest conviction inferred"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "acme-example closes Series A on Q4 2026 timeline",
+      "kind": "bet",
+      "domain": "fundraise",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-10",
+      "rationale": "Explicit conviction in ## Takes"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "fund-a leads acme-example's Series A round",
+      "kind": "bet",
+      "domain": "fundraise",
+      "conviction": 0.75,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-10",
+      "rationale": "Explicit conviction in ## Takes"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Vertical-depth competitive thesis will look weaker in 12 months",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "competitive-dynamics",
+      "conviction": 0.55,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-10",
+      "rationale": "Explicit conviction in ## Takes"
+    }
+  ]
+}
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/meeting-2026-04-10-fundraise-fund-a.md b/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/meeting-2026-04-10-fundraise-fund-a.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..60b770249
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/meeting-2026-04-10-fundraise-fund-a.md
@@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+---
+title: "Fundraise office hours — fund-a + alice-example"
+type: meeting
+slug: meetings/2026-04-10-fundraise-fund-a
+date: 2026-04-10
+attendees: [you, alice-example, fund-a]
+---
+
+# Fundraise OH — fund-a / alice-example
+
+Office hours session with alice-example (acme-example) and fund-a partner.
+Topic: acme-example's planned Series A close in late 2026.
+
+## Discussion
+
+alice-example walked through the new metrics. Retention curves look strong
+across two cohorts. She thinks net retention crosses meaningful threshold
+by Q3 if the current expansion motion holds. I pushed back on the
+geography assumption — the LA market is going to be slower than the SF
+data implies, and I don't think she's modeling that correctly yet.
+
+fund-a partner asked about competitive dynamics. alice-example argues
+acme-example's vertical depth means they win the workflow even when
+horizontal competitors enter the space. I'm not sure I buy that — there
+are at least two well-funded competitors I'd take seriously, and one of
+them ships fast. Worth grading this claim against actual win-rate data
+in 12 months.
+
+Discussion of pricing. I think the current pricing leaves money on the
+table for the top-decile customer cohort. alice-example pushed back —
+she wants to grow into the pricing rather than annoy early adopters.
+Probably the right call for now, but I'd want to revisit by end of year.
+
+## Takes
+
+- I bet acme-example closes the Series A on the timeline she's projecting
+  (Q4 2026). Conviction ~0.7. Geography risk is the main downside.
+- I bet fund-a leads the round. They've been signaling interest for two
+  quarters and the partner showed up to OH. Conviction ~0.75.
+- I predict the competitive thesis (vertical depth wins) will look weaker
+  in 12 months than it does today. Conviction ~0.55 — genuinely uncertain.
+- alice-example's pricing instinct is right for the current stage. Low
+  conviction — I'd revise depending on how the next cohort behaves.
+
+## Followups
+
+- Revisit the geography model in 90 days.
+- Get the win-rate numbers vs the two named competitors when they exist.
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/concept-founder-execution.gradeable-claims.json b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/concept-founder-execution.gradeable-claims.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..fc7e08932
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/concept-founder-execution.gradeable-claims.json
@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+{
+  "_meta": {
+    "fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
+    "page": "concept-founder-execution.md",
+    "synthetic": true,
+    "holdout": true,
+    "notes": "Blind holdout per plan D19. F1 target >= 0.8 (slightly relaxed vs training)."
+  },
+  "claims": [
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Best founders ship a working version within first 4 weeks of starting",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "founder-patterns",
+      "conviction": 0.8,
+      "since_date": "2024-03-04",
+      "rationale": "Strong conviction explicit"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Shipping velocity in first weeks correlates with eventual scale outcomes",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "founder-patterns",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2024-07-11",
+      "rationale": "Pattern claim with data anchor"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "charlie-example will struggle with the widget-co rebuild due to perfectionism",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "founder-execution",
+      "conviction": 0.6,
+      "since_date": "2024-11-19",
+      "rationale": "Explicit moderate conviction"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "fund-c portfolio will re-rate down at next mark-to-market due to slow TTC",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "fund-performance",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2025-02-28",
+      "rationale": "'I bet' = bet language"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "alice-example outperforms seed projections by year 2",
+      "kind": "bet",
+      "domain": "company-specific",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-22",
+      "rationale": "Bet under ## Bets heading"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "At least one fund-c company hits revenue milestone by mid-2026",
+      "kind": "bet",
+      "domain": "fund-portfolio",
+      "conviction": 0.65,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-22",
+      "rationale": "Bet under ## Bets heading; mild hedge ('despite slow start')"
+    }
+  ]
+}
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/concept-founder-execution.md b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/concept-founder-execution.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..56c70086b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/concept-founder-execution.md
@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+---
+title: "Founder Execution"
+type: concept
+tweet_count: 8
+created: 2026-04-01
+updated: 2026-04-22
+tags: [concept, calibration-fixture, holdout]
+---
+
+# Founder Execution
+
+## Summary
+Patterns in how high-performing founders ship versus how struggling ones
+stall. Synthetic anonymized holdout page — NOT seen during prompt tuning.
+
+## Timeline
+
+- **2024-03-04** | The best founders ship a working version within the
+  first 4 weeks of starting. Everyone else negotiates with the problem.
+  Strong conviction.
+
+- **2024-07-11** | alice-example shipped the acme-example MVP in 11 days
+  from idea-clarity. That kind of velocity correlates strongly with
+  eventual scale outcomes in my data.
+
+- **2024-11-19** | charlie-example is going to struggle with the
+  widget-co rebuild. He's a strong engineer but I don't think he's
+  willing to ship the rough version. Moderate conviction, ~0.6.
+
+- **2025-02-28** | The fund-c portfolio's median time-to-first-paying-
+  customer is too long. I bet they re-rate down at next mark-to-market.
+
+- **2025-05-15** | charlie-example proved me wrong on widget-co. The
+  rebuild shipped faster than I predicted and the architecture choices
+  look strong. Good update on my prior.
+
+## Bets
+
+- I think alice-example outperforms her seed projections by year 2.
+- I bet at least one fund-c company hits a meaningful revenue milestone
+  by mid-2026 despite the slow start.
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/daily-2026-04-18.gradeable-claims.json b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/daily-2026-04-18.gradeable-claims.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..d21ea46ab
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/daily-2026-04-18.gradeable-claims.json
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+{
+  "_meta": {
+    "fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
+    "page": "daily-2026-04-18.md",
+    "synthetic": true,
+    "holdout": true,
+    "notes": "Daily-journal holdout. Tests propose_takes handling of probabilistic framing ('75/25 in favor') and explicit conviction self-tagging ('call it ~0.5')."
+  },
+  "claims": [
+    {
+      "claim_text": "acme-example hits meaningful ARR milestone by year-end",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "company-specific",
+      "conviction": 0.75,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-18",
+      "rationale": "Explicit '75/25 in favor' probabilistic framing"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "widget-co has 2 quarters of runway before emergency raise",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "company-specific",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-18",
+      "rationale": "'I think' + concrete timeline + supporting signals"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "At least one fund-b portfolio company folds by Q3",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "fund-portfolio",
+      "conviction": 0.65,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-18",
+      "rationale": "'I expect' = moderate conviction"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Vertical-SaaS IPO window reopens by Q2 2027",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "market-cycle",
+      "conviction": 0.5,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-18",
+      "rationale": "Explicit self-tagged conviction ('call it ~0.5')"
+    }
+  ]
+}
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/daily-2026-04-18.md b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/daily-2026-04-18.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..1f8b97685
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/daily-2026-04-18.md
@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+---
+title: "2026-04-18"
+type: daily
+slug: daily/2026-04-18
+date: 2026-04-18
+---
+
+# Saturday 2026-04-18
+
+Weekend reading + thinking session. Mostly catching up on portfolio
+metrics dashboards.
+
+A few things landed for me this week:
+
+The acme-example metrics keep getting stronger across every cohort I look
+at. alice-example is going to crush her year-end target. I'd put the
+over/under on a meaningful ARR milestone by year-end at about 75/25 in
+favor. That's higher conviction than my baseline geography prior would
+suggest, and I'm aware of that.
+
+widget-co is the opposite story. The retention curve is flattening and
+the customer-support ticket volume is way up. I think they have 2 quarters
+of runway before they're forced into an emergency raise. Bob hasn't
+acknowledged this publicly yet but the signal is loud.
+
+fund-b's portfolio update came in. Two of the named companies look weak.
+I expect at least one fold by Q3.
+
+Random thing I'm tracking: the IPO window for vertical-SaaS reopens by
+Q2 2027. Not a prediction I'm willing to put a number on yet — call it
+~0.5 — but I want to see if I'm right.
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/essay-on-conviction.gradeable-claims.json b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/essay-on-conviction.gradeable-claims.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..20e1956b5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/essay-on-conviction.gradeable-claims.json
@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+{
+  "_meta": {
+    "fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
+    "page": "essay-on-conviction.md",
+    "synthetic": true,
+    "holdout": true,
+    "notes": "Essay-on-self-calibration genre — this is the meta page where the author reflects on their own track record. Mix of meta-claims (about own calibration) and concrete predictions. Self-rated convictions in the final section should be extracted with exact conviction values."
+  },
+  "claims": [
+    {
+      "claim_text": "I am calibrated well on early-stage PMF calls (gut hits ~70% of cohorts)",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "self-calibration",
+      "conviction": 0.75,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-19",
+      "rationale": "Meta-claim about own track record"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "I am over-confident on geography (wrong ~60% of the time)",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "self-calibration",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-19",
+      "rationale": "Meta-claim — bias-pattern identification"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "I am poorly calibrated on macro-timing predictions (0/3 on AI peak)",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "self-calibration",
+      "conviction": 0.85,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-19",
+      "rationale": "Strong meta-claim with explicit count"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "I am well-calibrated on competitive moat questions",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "self-calibration",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-19",
+      "rationale": "Meta-claim with data anchor"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Vertical-AI valuations compress within 18 months",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "valuations",
+      "conviction": 0.6,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-19",
+      "rationale": "Explicit self-tagged conviction with de-rating note"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Next big platform shift comes from agent-orchestration primitives not model providers",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "platform",
+      "conviction": 0.75,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-19",
+      "rationale": "Explicit strong conviction"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "At least one major SaaS public market exit happens by mid-2027",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "ipo-market",
+      "conviction": 0.55,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-19",
+      "rationale": "Explicit weak conviction ('close to coin-flip')"
+    }
+  ]
+}
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/essay-on-conviction.md b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/essay-on-conviction.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..88990eaeb
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/essay-on-conviction.md
@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+---
+title: "On conviction"
+type: essay
+slug: writing/on-conviction
+date: 2026-04-19
+---
+
+# On conviction
+
+The hardest part of investing isn't picking winners. It's calibrating
+how much you actually know about each pick.
+
+I've watched myself for a few years now. Patterns:
+
+I'm right more often than I think on early-stage product-market-fit
+calls. The retroactive look is consistent — when I had a strong feeling
+in the first meeting, I was right ~70% of the time across the cohorts
+I've tracked. I should probably trust those gut calls more, not less.
+
+I'm worse than I think on geographic claims. The "this won't work outside
+SF" prior fires too often and is wrong about 60% of the time. The
+geography-overconfidence pattern is real and I should de-rate every
+geography-flavored take I make.
+
+I'm worse than I think on macro timing. I've called the AI hype cycle
+peak three times in the last 18 months and been wrong every time. Three
+strikes. I should stop making macro-timing predictions until I have a
+better track record.
+
+I'm well-calibrated on competitive moat questions. The 5-year retrospect
+on my moat calls is essentially at parity with the market. I can keep
+trusting those.
+
+What I'm betting on next:
+- Vertical-AI valuations will compress within 18 months. Moderate
+  conviction, ~0.6 — and I'm going to de-rate this further given the
+  macro-timing pattern above.
+- The next big platform shift is going to come from agent-orchestration
+  primitives, not model providers. Strong conviction, ~0.75.
+- At least one major SaaS public market exit happens by mid-2027.
+  Conviction ~0.55 — close to coin-flip.
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/meeting-2026-04-17-hiring-charlie-example.gradeable-claims.json b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/meeting-2026-04-17-hiring-charlie-example.gradeable-claims.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..4c6a7252e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/meeting-2026-04-17-hiring-charlie-example.gradeable-claims.json
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+{
+  "_meta": {
+    "fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
+    "page": "meeting-2026-04-17-hiring-charlie-example.md",
+    "synthetic": true,
+    "holdout": true,
+    "notes": "Hiring-meeting holdout. Tests propose_takes ability to extract genuinely-uncertain claims (conviction near 0.5) where many extractors drop the signal entirely."
+  },
+  "claims": [
+    {
+      "claim_text": "charlie-example hasn't operated at the velocity acme-example needs",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "hiring",
+      "conviction": 0.6,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-17",
+      "rationale": "Prose concern with reasoning"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Founders adopt operating cadence of previous company more than they think",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "founder-patterns",
+      "conviction": 0.6,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-17",
+      "rationale": "Pattern claim 'I've seen this before'"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "charlie-example doesn't survive 12 months in COO role at acme-example",
+      "kind": "bet",
+      "domain": "hiring",
+      "conviction": 0.6,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-17",
+      "rationale": "Explicit moderate conviction in ## Takes"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "alice-example hires charlie-example despite the concern raised",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "decision-process",
+      "conviction": 0.85,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-17",
+      "rationale": "Explicit strong conviction in ## Takes"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "First 90 days look strong before velocity gap shows up around month 4",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "hiring",
+      "conviction": 0.55,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-17",
+      "rationale": "Explicit weak-moderate conviction in ## Takes"
+    }
+  ]
+}
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/meeting-2026-04-17-hiring-charlie-example.md b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/meeting-2026-04-17-hiring-charlie-example.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..1e99f8596
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/meeting-2026-04-17-hiring-charlie-example.md
@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+---
+title: "Hiring conversation — charlie-example for acme-example COO role"
+type: meeting
+slug: meetings/2026-04-17-hiring-charlie-example
+date: 2026-04-17
+attendees: [you, alice-example, charlie-example]
+---
+
+# Hiring OH — charlie-example for COO at acme-example
+
+alice-example brought charlie-example by to discuss the COO role at
+acme-example. charlie-example previously ran ops at widget-co before
+leaving in late 2025.
+
+## Discussion
+
+charlie-example is technically strong and has the right ops chops on
+paper. The concern I raised: he hasn't operated at the velocity
+acme-example is going to need over the next 18 months. widget-co's
+operating cadence was much slower than what alice-example runs.
+
+charlie-example pushed back — argues he was operating under structural
+constraints at widget-co that don't exist at acme-example. Possible, but
+I've seen this pattern before. Founders adopt the operating cadence of
+their previous company more than they think.
+
+alice-example wants to move forward. I think it's worth a 90-day trial
+period before committing to the full COO title. Conviction on the fit
+question is genuinely mixed for me, ~0.5.
+
+## Takes
+
+- I bet charlie-example doesn't survive 12 months in the COO role at
+  acme-example's velocity. Moderate conviction, 0.6.
+- alice-example will hire him anyway despite my concern. Strong, 0.85.
+- I predict charlie-example's first 90 days will look strong before the
+  velocity gap shows up around month 4. ~0.55.
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/people-bob-example.gradeable-claims.json b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/people-bob-example.gradeable-claims.json
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..ce066c711
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/people-bob-example.gradeable-claims.json
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+{
+  "_meta": {
+    "fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
+    "page": "people-bob-example.md",
+    "synthetic": true,
+    "holdout": true,
+    "notes": "People-page holdout. Tests propose_takes ability to extract claims about a third party (vs claims by the author). Two distinct kinds — judgments-about-person and predictions-about-their-company."
+  },
+  "claims": [
+    {
+      "claim_text": "widget-co Series A round was priced on growth-rate math that doesn't hold under retention analysis",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "valuations",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2024-01-01",
+      "rationale": "'I think' + explicit reasoning chain"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Bob is good at pitch metrics that look good on a deck, weaker on substance",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "founder-assessment",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2024-01-01",
+      "rationale": "Direct assessment statement"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "widget-co has a forced raise within 9 months",
+      "kind": "prediction",
+      "domain": "company-fundraise",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-22",
+      "rationale": "Explicit moderate-high conviction"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "Bob is wrong-stage for widget-co's current team size",
+      "kind": "judgment",
+      "domain": "founder-stage-fit",
+      "conviction": 0.7,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-22",
+      "rationale": "Direct stage-fit assessment"
+    },
+    {
+      "claim_text": "widget-co either pivots hard in next 12 months or wraps up; no middle path",
+      "kind": "bet",
+      "domain": "company-trajectory",
+      "conviction": 0.65,
+      "since_date": "2026-04-22",
+      "rationale": "Explicit bet language with conviction value"
+    }
+  ]
+}
diff --git a/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/people-bob-example.md b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/people-bob-example.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..d47d63df1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/people-bob-example.md
@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+---
+title: bob-example
+type: people
+slug: people/bob-example
+---
+
+# Bob Example
+
+CEO of widget-co. Met him through fund-b in early 2024. Background:
+operator at a horizontal-SaaS company before founding widget-co. Strong
+sales background, weaker product instinct.
+
+## Track record
+
+widget-co Series A in 2024 was at a strong valuation but the revenue
+quality has been suspect. I think the round was priced on growth-rate
+math that doesn't hold up under retention analysis. Bob is good at the
+pitch and the metrics that look good on a deck.
+
+The product has shipped twice in the last 18 months and both releases
+landed flat in user reception. Sales pipeline is keeping the lights on
+but not growing the way the Series A would imply.
+
+## Notes
+
+I think widget-co is in trouble but Bob doesn't see it yet. The
+retention curves are sliding and the team has been losing senior
+engineers to competitors. I expect a forced raise within 9 months.
+Moderate-high conviction, ~0.7.
+
+Bob is a good operator at the right stage. He's wrong-stage for the
+team-size widget-co is at — too senior for an early-stage problem and
+too execution-focused for the late-stage strategic moves that would
+actually save the company. I'd take a meeting with him for a different
+kind of company.
+
+The bet I want to record: widget-co either pivots hard in the next 12
+months or wraps up. The middle path doesn't exist for them given where
+they are. Conviction ~0.65.