Garry Tan and Claude Opus 4.7
c3bb182e9a
calibration: Brier-trend forecast at write time (T10 / E5)
...
Pure math layer over existing TakesScorecard data. Zero new LLM cost, zero
new schema. Surfaces the user's historical Brier for the take's
(holder, domain) bucket at write time so they see "your historical Brier
in macro takes is 0.31" before committing the take.
Voice-gate-rendered output:
The user-facing string goes through gateVoice mode='forecast_blurb' via
templates.ts (already in T6). This module is the pure data layer; the
template renders the math into the conversational voice.
v0.36.0.0 ship state:
Bucket dimension is the DOMAIN (slug-prefix). The conviction-weight
bucket dimension would need a new engine method
(engine.batchGetTakeBucketStats per F11) — deferred to v0.37+. Until
then, forecast = historical Brier in this holder's domain.
resolveDomainPrefix() keeps slug-prefix-looking domain hints
('companies/', 'wiki/macro') and falls back to overall for free-form
hints ('macro tech', 'geography'). Hindsight-style structured domain
on takes (CDX-11 mitigation TODO) tightens this in v0.37+.
MIN_BUCKET_N = 5:
Below this sample size, the forecast returns predicted_brier=null with
insufficient_data=true. Template renders "Forecast unavailable: only N
resolved takes at this conviction yet" instead of a noisy estimate.
Architecture:
computeForecast(input) — pure function, takes scorecards already
fetched; ideal for tests + reuse across batched paths.
forecastForTake(engine, input) — convenience wrapper, 1-2 engine
round-trips (no domain → 1; with domain → 2).
batchForecast(engine, inputs[]) — memoizes per (holder, domainPrefix);
N inputs collapse to ≤2*unique_holders unique engine calls. Used by
the propose-queue review flow (50 candidates → 1-2 scorecard fetches).
Tests: 14 cases.
computeForecast (4): insufficient_data branch, stable forecast,
overall fallback, MIN_BUCKET_N export.
resolveDomainPrefix (5): undefined/empty/whitespace → undefined;
slug-prefix → kept; free-form → undefined.
forecastForTake (3): 1-call overall, 2-call domain, free-form fallback.
batchForecast (2): cache collapse for repeat queries; different holders
do not collapse.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-05-17 16:33:43 -07:00
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