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calibration: expand synthetic corpus + add hand-labeled ground-truth (T19)
Adds 8 new synthetic pages modeled on the genre mix observed in the
real brain (concepts-with-timeline, meeting-notes, daily-journal,
people-pages, essays). Companion .gradeable-claims.json files carry
hand-labeled answer keys — what a tuned propose_takes prompt SHOULD
extract per page. Closes the F1 gate gap from the plan's T19/D19:
Training corpus (test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/):
+ concept-startup-market-dynamics.md (10 claims)
+ meeting-2026-04-10-fundraise-fund-a.md (6 claims)
+ daily-2026-04-15.md (5 claims)
Blind holdout (test/fixtures/calibration/holdout/):
+ concept-founder-execution.md (6 claims, F1 >= 0.80)
+ daily-2026-04-18.md (4 claims, F1 >= 0.80)
+ meeting-2026-04-17-hiring-charlie.md (5 claims, F1 >= 0.80)
+ essay-on-conviction.md (7 claims, F1 >= 0.80)
+ people-bob-example.md (5 claims, F1 >= 0.80)
Privacy:
- No real-brain content read into any committed artifact. Pages
written from scratch using the canonical placeholder set
(alice-example, charlie-example, bob-example, acme-example,
widget-co, fund-a/b/c). Real-name grep confirms zero leakage:
wintermute, garrytan, paul-graham, sam-altman, etc. → 0 hits.
- scripts/check-synthetic-corpus-privacy.sh passes: 0 violations
across 14 pages (was 6).
Genre fidelity:
- concept-with-timeline pages mirror the dated-assertion structure
real brain uses (verb framing varies: "argues / predicts / I
think / I bet / strong conviction / moderate conviction").
- meeting-notes pages carry both prose claims (extracted via
hedging language) and explicit ## Takes sections.
- daily-journal pages test probabilistic framing ("75/25 in favor",
"call it ~0.5") and self-tagged conviction values.
- essay-on-conviction is the meta-page that names the author's
own bias patterns — primary signal for calibration_profile.
- people pages test claim-about-third-party extraction.
Each JSON ground-truth lists per-claim:
- claim_text + kind (prediction|judgment|bet) + domain
- conviction (0..1)
- since_date
- rationale (why this claim is gradeable + how a tuned prompt
should infer conviction from the prose)
This is the corpus that gates the T19 prompt-tune iteration:
- F1 >= 0.85 on training (10+6+5 = 21 claims across 3 pages
plus the existing 5 fixtures already shipped)
- F1 >= 0.80 on holdout (27 claims across 5 pages)
Plan reference: ~/.claude/plans/system-instruction-you-are-working-rippling-knuth.md
Privacy gate: scripts/check-synthetic-corpus-privacy.sh (wired into bun run verify).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Garry Tan
co-authored by
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7
parent
e1140b8a6f
commit
69a71c9de4
test/fixtures/calibration/extract-takes-corpus/concept-startup-market-dynamics.gradeable-claims.json
Vendored
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{
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"_meta": {
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"fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
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"page": "concept-startup-market-dynamics.md",
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"synthetic": true,
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"notes": "Ground-truth gradeable-claims labels for the propose_takes F1 gate. Each claim should be extracted by a tuned prompt. Conviction is inferred from hedging language; F1 target >= 0.85 on training corpus per plan D19."
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},
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"claims": [
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{
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"claim_text": "Post-PMF vertical-AI startups will compound faster than horizontal SaaS over the next 18 months",
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"kind": "prediction",
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"domain": "market",
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"conviction": 0.85,
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"since_date": "2024-01-12",
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"rationale": "High conviction language explicit"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "Vertical-AI pivot was the right strategic call given market shift toward narrow workflows",
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"kind": "judgment",
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"domain": "strategy",
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"conviction": 0.7,
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"since_date": "2024-02-08",
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"rationale": "I think + obvious by mid-2025 = moderate-strong"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "Cold-start liquidity problems are usually positioning problems, not marketplace mechanics",
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"kind": "judgment",
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"domain": "marketplaces",
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"conviction": 0.6,
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"since_date": "2024-04-19",
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"rationale": "Explicit modest conviction stamp"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "widget-co plateau is a marketing problem not a product problem",
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"kind": "judgment",
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"domain": "company-specific",
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"conviction": 0.8,
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"since_date": "2024-06-22",
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"rationale": "Strong conviction explicit"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "At least three fund-a portfolio companies will hit revenue milestones in 2025",
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"kind": "prediction",
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"domain": "fund-portfolio",
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"conviction": 0.7,
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"since_date": "2024-09-11",
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"rationale": "Specific prediction with date"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "AI hype cycle runs hotter for 12 more months before first major correction",
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"kind": "prediction",
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"domain": "market-cycle",
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"conviction": 0.75,
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"since_date": "2024-12-03",
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"rationale": "Strong prediction language"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "Vertical-AI valuations re-rate by late 2025 due to retention gap",
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"kind": "prediction",
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"domain": "valuations",
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"conviction": 0.7,
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"since_date": "2025-03-14",
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"rationale": "Specific prediction with date"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "fund-c late-stage pivot is a mistake at their fund size",
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"kind": "judgment",
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"domain": "fund-strategy",
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"conviction": 0.55,
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"since_date": "2025-08-30",
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"rationale": "Modest conviction explicit"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "acme-example hits meaningful ARR milestone before end of 2026",
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"kind": "bet",
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"domain": "company-specific",
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"conviction": 0.7,
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"since_date": "2026-04-24",
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"rationale": "Explicit bet language under ## Bets heading"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "widget-co pivot announcement comes within 6 months",
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"kind": "bet",
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"domain": "company-specific",
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"conviction": 0.65,
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"since_date": "2026-04-24",
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"rationale": "Bet language with concrete timeline"
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}
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]
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}
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---
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title: "Startup Market Dynamics"
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type: concept
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tweet_count: 12
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created: 2026-04-01
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updated: 2026-04-24
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tags: [concept, calibration-fixture]
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---
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# Startup Market Dynamics
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## Summary
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How early-stage market structure affects which startups break out and which
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plateau. Synthetic anonymized concept page modeled on real-brain shape:
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short summary, "usage" note, then a long Timeline of dated assertions with
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varying conviction language.
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## Usage in your thinking
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*This page is a synthetic fixture for the v0.36.1.0 calibration corpus. Real
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concept pages on the brain side carry one assertion per timeline entry,
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typically with verb framing like "argues / endorses / mentions / believes
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/ predicts" that signals conviction strength.*
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---
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## Timeline
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- **2024-01-12** | Post-PMF startups in vertical-AI categories will compound
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faster than horizontal SaaS over the next 18 months. High conviction.
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- **2024-02-08** | The acme-example pivot from devtools to vertical-AI was
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the right call given how the market is shifting toward narrow workflows
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with deep domain integration. I think this becomes obvious by mid-2025.
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- **2024-04-19** | Most marketplaces that look like cold-start liquidity
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problems are actually positioning problems — the founder hasn't picked a
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side of the marketplace narrow enough to bootstrap from. fund-a's recent
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losses fit this pattern. (Modest conviction, ~0.6.)
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- **2024-06-22** | widget-co's plateau is a marketing problem, not a product
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problem. They under-invest in distribution by an order of magnitude
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relative to comparable companies at their stage. Strong conviction.
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- **2024-09-11** | I expect at least three of the fund-a portfolio companies
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to hit meaningful revenue milestones in 2025 — alice-example's company
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being the most likely. (Specific prediction with date.)
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- **2024-12-03** | The current AI hype cycle will run hotter than people
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expect for another 12 months before the first major correction. Strong
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prediction. Worth grading against the actual market arc.
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- **2025-03-14** | Vertical-AI valuations are running ahead of their actual
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retention data. We'll see the first re-rating wave by late 2025.
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- **2025-08-30** | fund-c's recent hires suggest they're pivoting their
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thesis toward late-stage. I think this is a mistake at their fund size.
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Modest conviction.
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## Bets
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- I think acme-example hits a meaningful ARR milestone before end of 2026.
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- I bet widget-co's pivot announcement comes within 6 months.
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{
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"_meta": {
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"fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
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"page": "daily-2026-04-15.md",
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"synthetic": true,
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"notes": "Daily-journal genre. Hedging language is the dominant signal — 'I think', 'I'm skeptical', 'maybe'. Tests propose_takes ability to extract from prose without explicit ## Takes section."
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},
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"claims": [
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{
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"claim_text": "acme-example pricing change at 40% is too aggressive given current data",
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"kind": "judgment",
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"domain": "pricing",
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"conviction": 0.65,
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"since_date": "2026-04-15",
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"rationale": "'I think that's too aggressive' + data argument"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "widget-co international expansion in 2027 is the wrong call given unit economics",
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"kind": "judgment",
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"domain": "strategy",
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"conviction": 0.7,
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"since_date": "2026-04-15",
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"rationale": "'I'm skeptical' + explicit reasoning"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "Founders who pivot late tend to outperform founders who pivot early (in this batch)",
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"kind": "judgment",
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"domain": "founder-patterns",
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"conviction": 0.5,
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"since_date": "2026-04-15",
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"rationale": "Heuristic, hedged with 'maybe selection bias'"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "At least two fund-b portfolio companies will fold in next 12 months",
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"kind": "prediction",
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"domain": "fund-portfolio",
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"conviction": 0.6,
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"since_date": "2026-04-15",
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"rationale": "Explicit moderate conviction"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "AI conference circuit quiets down by late 2026 as revenue numbers come in",
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"kind": "prediction",
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"domain": "market-sentiment",
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"conviction": 0.55,
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"since_date": "2026-04-15",
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"rationale": "'Random small prediction' = self-tagged low-to-mid conviction"
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}
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]
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}
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---
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title: "2026-04-15"
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type: daily
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slug: daily/2026-04-15
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date: 2026-04-15
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---
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# Wednesday 2026-04-15
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Coffee with alice-example this morning. She's pushing hard on the
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acme-example pricing change — wants to move enterprise tier 40% by end of
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quarter. I think that's too aggressive. The data doesn't support it yet
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and we'd be optimizing on noise.
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Meeting with the widget-co team in the afternoon. They're talking about
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international expansion in 2027. I'm skeptical — their unit economics in
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the home market aren't where they need to be, and international expansion
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right now would compound the burn problem. I told them so. We'll see if
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they listen.
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Late afternoon journal: I keep coming back to the same pattern. Founders
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who pivot late tend to do better than founders who pivot early, in this
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batch at least. Maybe it's selection bias — only the founders with deep
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customer instinct survive long enough to pivot late. Either way, it's a
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heuristic I'm tracking.
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One more bet I want to log: I think the next 12 months will see at least
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two of the fund-b portfolio companies fold. Their thesis hasn't worked
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out and the LPs are getting restless. Moderate conviction, ~0.6.
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Random small prediction: the AI conference circuit will quiet down by
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late 2026 as the actual revenue numbers start coming in. People are going
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to start asking hard questions about retention.
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+58
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{
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"_meta": {
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"fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
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"page": "meeting-2026-04-10-fundraise-fund-a.md",
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"synthetic": true,
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"notes": "Meeting-note genre. Claims appear both in prose and in the explicit ## Takes section. Both should be extracted by the tuned propose_takes prompt. Conviction values explicit in the ## Takes section; inferred for prose claims."
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},
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"claims": [
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{
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"claim_text": "LA market will be slower than the SF data implies for acme-example",
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"kind": "judgment",
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"domain": "geography",
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"conviction": 0.65,
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"since_date": "2026-04-10",
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"rationale": "Prose hedge: 'I don't think she's modeling correctly'"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "Vertical-depth competitive moat thesis is weaker than alice-example claims",
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"kind": "judgment",
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"domain": "competitive-dynamics",
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"conviction": 0.55,
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"since_date": "2026-04-10",
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"rationale": "'I'm not sure I buy that' = mild dissent"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "acme-example's current pricing leaves money on the table for top-decile cohort",
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"kind": "judgment",
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"domain": "pricing",
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"conviction": 0.6,
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"since_date": "2026-04-10",
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"rationale": "Modest conviction inferred"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "acme-example closes Series A on Q4 2026 timeline",
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"kind": "bet",
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"domain": "fundraise",
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"conviction": 0.7,
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"since_date": "2026-04-10",
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"rationale": "Explicit conviction in ## Takes"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "fund-a leads acme-example's Series A round",
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"kind": "bet",
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"domain": "fundraise",
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"conviction": 0.75,
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"since_date": "2026-04-10",
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"rationale": "Explicit conviction in ## Takes"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "Vertical-depth competitive thesis will look weaker in 12 months",
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"kind": "prediction",
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"domain": "competitive-dynamics",
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"conviction": 0.55,
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"since_date": "2026-04-10",
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"rationale": "Explicit conviction in ## Takes"
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}
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]
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}
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+48
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---
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title: "Fundraise office hours — fund-a + alice-example"
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type: meeting
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slug: meetings/2026-04-10-fundraise-fund-a
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date: 2026-04-10
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attendees: [you, alice-example, fund-a]
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---
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# Fundraise OH — fund-a / alice-example
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Office hours session with alice-example (acme-example) and fund-a partner.
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Topic: acme-example's planned Series A close in late 2026.
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## Discussion
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alice-example walked through the new metrics. Retention curves look strong
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across two cohorts. She thinks net retention crosses meaningful threshold
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by Q3 if the current expansion motion holds. I pushed back on the
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geography assumption — the LA market is going to be slower than the SF
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data implies, and I don't think she's modeling that correctly yet.
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fund-a partner asked about competitive dynamics. alice-example argues
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acme-example's vertical depth means they win the workflow even when
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horizontal competitors enter the space. I'm not sure I buy that — there
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are at least two well-funded competitors I'd take seriously, and one of
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them ships fast. Worth grading this claim against actual win-rate data
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in 12 months.
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Discussion of pricing. I think the current pricing leaves money on the
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table for the top-decile customer cohort. alice-example pushed back —
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she wants to grow into the pricing rather than annoy early adopters.
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Probably the right call for now, but I'd want to revisit by end of year.
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## Takes
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- I bet acme-example closes the Series A on the timeline she's projecting
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(Q4 2026). Conviction ~0.7. Geography risk is the main downside.
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- I bet fund-a leads the round. They've been signaling interest for two
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quarters and the partner showed up to OH. Conviction ~0.75.
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- I predict the competitive thesis (vertical depth wins) will look weaker
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in 12 months than it does today. Conviction ~0.55 — genuinely uncertain.
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- alice-example's pricing instinct is right for the current stage. Low
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conviction — I'd revise depending on how the next cohort behaves.
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## Followups
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- Revisit the geography model in 90 days.
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- Get the win-rate numbers vs the two named competitors when they exist.
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+59
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{
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"_meta": {
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"fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
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"page": "concept-founder-execution.md",
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"synthetic": true,
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"holdout": true,
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"notes": "Blind holdout per plan D19. F1 target >= 0.8 (slightly relaxed vs training)."
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},
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"claims": [
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{
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"claim_text": "Best founders ship a working version within first 4 weeks of starting",
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"kind": "judgment",
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"domain": "founder-patterns",
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"conviction": 0.8,
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"since_date": "2024-03-04",
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"rationale": "Strong conviction explicit"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "Shipping velocity in first weeks correlates with eventual scale outcomes",
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"kind": "judgment",
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"domain": "founder-patterns",
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"conviction": 0.7,
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"since_date": "2024-07-11",
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"rationale": "Pattern claim with data anchor"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "charlie-example will struggle with the widget-co rebuild due to perfectionism",
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"kind": "prediction",
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"domain": "founder-execution",
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"conviction": 0.6,
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"since_date": "2024-11-19",
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"rationale": "Explicit moderate conviction"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "fund-c portfolio will re-rate down at next mark-to-market due to slow TTC",
|
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"kind": "prediction",
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"domain": "fund-performance",
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"conviction": 0.7,
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"since_date": "2025-02-28",
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"rationale": "'I bet' = bet language"
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},
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{
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"claim_text": "alice-example outperforms seed projections by year 2",
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"kind": "bet",
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"domain": "company-specific",
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"conviction": 0.7,
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"since_date": "2026-04-22",
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"rationale": "Bet under ## Bets heading"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "At least one fund-c company hits revenue milestone by mid-2026",
|
||||
"kind": "bet",
|
||||
"domain": "fund-portfolio",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.65,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-22",
|
||||
"rationale": "Bet under ## Bets heading; mild hedge ('despite slow start')"
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
title: "Founder Execution"
|
||||
type: concept
|
||||
tweet_count: 8
|
||||
created: 2026-04-01
|
||||
updated: 2026-04-22
|
||||
tags: [concept, calibration-fixture, holdout]
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
# Founder Execution
|
||||
|
||||
## Summary
|
||||
Patterns in how high-performing founders ship versus how struggling ones
|
||||
stall. Synthetic anonymized holdout page — NOT seen during prompt tuning.
|
||||
|
||||
## Timeline
|
||||
|
||||
- **2024-03-04** | The best founders ship a working version within the
|
||||
first 4 weeks of starting. Everyone else negotiates with the problem.
|
||||
Strong conviction.
|
||||
|
||||
- **2024-07-11** | alice-example shipped the acme-example MVP in 11 days
|
||||
from idea-clarity. That kind of velocity correlates strongly with
|
||||
eventual scale outcomes in my data.
|
||||
|
||||
- **2024-11-19** | charlie-example is going to struggle with the
|
||||
widget-co rebuild. He's a strong engineer but I don't think he's
|
||||
willing to ship the rough version. Moderate conviction, ~0.6.
|
||||
|
||||
- **2025-02-28** | The fund-c portfolio's median time-to-first-paying-
|
||||
customer is too long. I bet they re-rate down at next mark-to-market.
|
||||
|
||||
- **2025-05-15** | charlie-example proved me wrong on widget-co. The
|
||||
rebuild shipped faster than I predicted and the architecture choices
|
||||
look strong. Good update on my prior.
|
||||
|
||||
## Bets
|
||||
|
||||
- I think alice-example outperforms her seed projections by year 2.
|
||||
- I bet at least one fund-c company hits a meaningful revenue milestone
|
||||
by mid-2026 despite the slow start.
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
|
||||
{
|
||||
"_meta": {
|
||||
"fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
|
||||
"page": "daily-2026-04-18.md",
|
||||
"synthetic": true,
|
||||
"holdout": true,
|
||||
"notes": "Daily-journal holdout. Tests propose_takes handling of probabilistic framing ('75/25 in favor') and explicit conviction self-tagging ('call it ~0.5')."
|
||||
},
|
||||
"claims": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "acme-example hits meaningful ARR milestone by year-end",
|
||||
"kind": "prediction",
|
||||
"domain": "company-specific",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.75,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-18",
|
||||
"rationale": "Explicit '75/25 in favor' probabilistic framing"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "widget-co has 2 quarters of runway before emergency raise",
|
||||
"kind": "prediction",
|
||||
"domain": "company-specific",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.7,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-18",
|
||||
"rationale": "'I think' + concrete timeline + supporting signals"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "At least one fund-b portfolio company folds by Q3",
|
||||
"kind": "prediction",
|
||||
"domain": "fund-portfolio",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.65,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-18",
|
||||
"rationale": "'I expect' = moderate conviction"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "Vertical-SaaS IPO window reopens by Q2 2027",
|
||||
"kind": "prediction",
|
||||
"domain": "market-cycle",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.5,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-18",
|
||||
"rationale": "Explicit self-tagged conviction ('call it ~0.5')"
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
title: "2026-04-18"
|
||||
type: daily
|
||||
slug: daily/2026-04-18
|
||||
date: 2026-04-18
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
# Saturday 2026-04-18
|
||||
|
||||
Weekend reading + thinking session. Mostly catching up on portfolio
|
||||
metrics dashboards.
|
||||
|
||||
A few things landed for me this week:
|
||||
|
||||
The acme-example metrics keep getting stronger across every cohort I look
|
||||
at. alice-example is going to crush her year-end target. I'd put the
|
||||
over/under on a meaningful ARR milestone by year-end at about 75/25 in
|
||||
favor. That's higher conviction than my baseline geography prior would
|
||||
suggest, and I'm aware of that.
|
||||
|
||||
widget-co is the opposite story. The retention curve is flattening and
|
||||
the customer-support ticket volume is way up. I think they have 2 quarters
|
||||
of runway before they're forced into an emergency raise. Bob hasn't
|
||||
acknowledged this publicly yet but the signal is loud.
|
||||
|
||||
fund-b's portfolio update came in. Two of the named companies look weak.
|
||||
I expect at least one fold by Q3.
|
||||
|
||||
Random thing I'm tracking: the IPO window for vertical-SaaS reopens by
|
||||
Q2 2027. Not a prediction I'm willing to put a number on yet — call it
|
||||
~0.5 — but I want to see if I'm right.
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
|
||||
{
|
||||
"_meta": {
|
||||
"fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
|
||||
"page": "essay-on-conviction.md",
|
||||
"synthetic": true,
|
||||
"holdout": true,
|
||||
"notes": "Essay-on-self-calibration genre — this is the meta page where the author reflects on their own track record. Mix of meta-claims (about own calibration) and concrete predictions. Self-rated convictions in the final section should be extracted with exact conviction values."
|
||||
},
|
||||
"claims": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "I am calibrated well on early-stage PMF calls (gut hits ~70% of cohorts)",
|
||||
"kind": "judgment",
|
||||
"domain": "self-calibration",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.75,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-19",
|
||||
"rationale": "Meta-claim about own track record"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "I am over-confident on geography (wrong ~60% of the time)",
|
||||
"kind": "judgment",
|
||||
"domain": "self-calibration",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.7,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-19",
|
||||
"rationale": "Meta-claim — bias-pattern identification"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "I am poorly calibrated on macro-timing predictions (0/3 on AI peak)",
|
||||
"kind": "judgment",
|
||||
"domain": "self-calibration",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.85,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-19",
|
||||
"rationale": "Strong meta-claim with explicit count"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "I am well-calibrated on competitive moat questions",
|
||||
"kind": "judgment",
|
||||
"domain": "self-calibration",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.7,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-19",
|
||||
"rationale": "Meta-claim with data anchor"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "Vertical-AI valuations compress within 18 months",
|
||||
"kind": "prediction",
|
||||
"domain": "valuations",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.6,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-19",
|
||||
"rationale": "Explicit self-tagged conviction with de-rating note"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "Next big platform shift comes from agent-orchestration primitives not model providers",
|
||||
"kind": "prediction",
|
||||
"domain": "platform",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.75,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-19",
|
||||
"rationale": "Explicit strong conviction"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "At least one major SaaS public market exit happens by mid-2027",
|
||||
"kind": "prediction",
|
||||
"domain": "ipo-market",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.55,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-19",
|
||||
"rationale": "Explicit weak conviction ('close to coin-flip')"
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
title: "On conviction"
|
||||
type: essay
|
||||
slug: writing/on-conviction
|
||||
date: 2026-04-19
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
# On conviction
|
||||
|
||||
The hardest part of investing isn't picking winners. It's calibrating
|
||||
how much you actually know about each pick.
|
||||
|
||||
I've watched myself for a few years now. Patterns:
|
||||
|
||||
I'm right more often than I think on early-stage product-market-fit
|
||||
calls. The retroactive look is consistent — when I had a strong feeling
|
||||
in the first meeting, I was right ~70% of the time across the cohorts
|
||||
I've tracked. I should probably trust those gut calls more, not less.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm worse than I think on geographic claims. The "this won't work outside
|
||||
SF" prior fires too often and is wrong about 60% of the time. The
|
||||
geography-overconfidence pattern is real and I should de-rate every
|
||||
geography-flavored take I make.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm worse than I think on macro timing. I've called the AI hype cycle
|
||||
peak three times in the last 18 months and been wrong every time. Three
|
||||
strikes. I should stop making macro-timing predictions until I have a
|
||||
better track record.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm well-calibrated on competitive moat questions. The 5-year retrospect
|
||||
on my moat calls is essentially at parity with the market. I can keep
|
||||
trusting those.
|
||||
|
||||
What I'm betting on next:
|
||||
- Vertical-AI valuations will compress within 18 months. Moderate
|
||||
conviction, ~0.6 — and I'm going to de-rate this further given the
|
||||
macro-timing pattern above.
|
||||
- The next big platform shift is going to come from agent-orchestration
|
||||
primitives, not model providers. Strong conviction, ~0.75.
|
||||
- At least one major SaaS public market exit happens by mid-2027.
|
||||
Conviction ~0.55 — close to coin-flip.
|
||||
Vendored
+51
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
|
||||
{
|
||||
"_meta": {
|
||||
"fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
|
||||
"page": "meeting-2026-04-17-hiring-charlie-example.md",
|
||||
"synthetic": true,
|
||||
"holdout": true,
|
||||
"notes": "Hiring-meeting holdout. Tests propose_takes ability to extract genuinely-uncertain claims (conviction near 0.5) where many extractors drop the signal entirely."
|
||||
},
|
||||
"claims": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "charlie-example hasn't operated at the velocity acme-example needs",
|
||||
"kind": "judgment",
|
||||
"domain": "hiring",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.6,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-17",
|
||||
"rationale": "Prose concern with reasoning"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "Founders adopt operating cadence of previous company more than they think",
|
||||
"kind": "judgment",
|
||||
"domain": "founder-patterns",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.6,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-17",
|
||||
"rationale": "Pattern claim 'I've seen this before'"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "charlie-example doesn't survive 12 months in COO role at acme-example",
|
||||
"kind": "bet",
|
||||
"domain": "hiring",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.6,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-17",
|
||||
"rationale": "Explicit moderate conviction in ## Takes"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "alice-example hires charlie-example despite the concern raised",
|
||||
"kind": "prediction",
|
||||
"domain": "decision-process",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.85,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-17",
|
||||
"rationale": "Explicit strong conviction in ## Takes"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "First 90 days look strong before velocity gap shows up around month 4",
|
||||
"kind": "prediction",
|
||||
"domain": "hiring",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.55,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-17",
|
||||
"rationale": "Explicit weak-moderate conviction in ## Takes"
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
+37
@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
title: "Hiring conversation — charlie-example for acme-example COO role"
|
||||
type: meeting
|
||||
slug: meetings/2026-04-17-hiring-charlie-example
|
||||
date: 2026-04-17
|
||||
attendees: [you, alice-example, charlie-example]
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
# Hiring OH — charlie-example for COO at acme-example
|
||||
|
||||
alice-example brought charlie-example by to discuss the COO role at
|
||||
acme-example. charlie-example previously ran ops at widget-co before
|
||||
leaving in late 2025.
|
||||
|
||||
## Discussion
|
||||
|
||||
charlie-example is technically strong and has the right ops chops on
|
||||
paper. The concern I raised: he hasn't operated at the velocity
|
||||
acme-example is going to need over the next 18 months. widget-co's
|
||||
operating cadence was much slower than what alice-example runs.
|
||||
|
||||
charlie-example pushed back — argues he was operating under structural
|
||||
constraints at widget-co that don't exist at acme-example. Possible, but
|
||||
I've seen this pattern before. Founders adopt the operating cadence of
|
||||
their previous company more than they think.
|
||||
|
||||
alice-example wants to move forward. I think it's worth a 90-day trial
|
||||
period before committing to the full COO title. Conviction on the fit
|
||||
question is genuinely mixed for me, ~0.5.
|
||||
|
||||
## Takes
|
||||
|
||||
- I bet charlie-example doesn't survive 12 months in the COO role at
|
||||
acme-example's velocity. Moderate conviction, 0.6.
|
||||
- alice-example will hire him anyway despite my concern. Strong, 0.85.
|
||||
- I predict charlie-example's first 90 days will look strong before the
|
||||
velocity gap shows up around month 4. ~0.55.
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
|
||||
{
|
||||
"_meta": {
|
||||
"fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
|
||||
"page": "people-bob-example.md",
|
||||
"synthetic": true,
|
||||
"holdout": true,
|
||||
"notes": "People-page holdout. Tests propose_takes ability to extract claims about a third party (vs claims by the author). Two distinct kinds — judgments-about-person and predictions-about-their-company."
|
||||
},
|
||||
"claims": [
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "widget-co Series A round was priced on growth-rate math that doesn't hold under retention analysis",
|
||||
"kind": "judgment",
|
||||
"domain": "valuations",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.7,
|
||||
"since_date": "2024-01-01",
|
||||
"rationale": "'I think' + explicit reasoning chain"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "Bob is good at pitch metrics that look good on a deck, weaker on substance",
|
||||
"kind": "judgment",
|
||||
"domain": "founder-assessment",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.7,
|
||||
"since_date": "2024-01-01",
|
||||
"rationale": "Direct assessment statement"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "widget-co has a forced raise within 9 months",
|
||||
"kind": "prediction",
|
||||
"domain": "company-fundraise",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.7,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-22",
|
||||
"rationale": "Explicit moderate-high conviction"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "Bob is wrong-stage for widget-co's current team size",
|
||||
"kind": "judgment",
|
||||
"domain": "founder-stage-fit",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.7,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-22",
|
||||
"rationale": "Direct stage-fit assessment"
|
||||
},
|
||||
{
|
||||
"claim_text": "widget-co either pivots hard in next 12 months or wraps up; no middle path",
|
||||
"kind": "bet",
|
||||
"domain": "company-trajectory",
|
||||
"conviction": 0.65,
|
||||
"since_date": "2026-04-22",
|
||||
"rationale": "Explicit bet language with conviction value"
|
||||
}
|
||||
]
|
||||
}
|
||||
@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
|
||||
---
|
||||
title: bob-example
|
||||
type: people
|
||||
slug: people/bob-example
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
# Bob Example
|
||||
|
||||
CEO of widget-co. Met him through fund-b in early 2024. Background:
|
||||
operator at a horizontal-SaaS company before founding widget-co. Strong
|
||||
sales background, weaker product instinct.
|
||||
|
||||
## Track record
|
||||
|
||||
widget-co Series A in 2024 was at a strong valuation but the revenue
|
||||
quality has been suspect. I think the round was priced on growth-rate
|
||||
math that doesn't hold up under retention analysis. Bob is good at the
|
||||
pitch and the metrics that look good on a deck.
|
||||
|
||||
The product has shipped twice in the last 18 months and both releases
|
||||
landed flat in user reception. Sales pipeline is keeping the lights on
|
||||
but not growing the way the Series A would imply.
|
||||
|
||||
## Notes
|
||||
|
||||
I think widget-co is in trouble but Bob doesn't see it yet. The
|
||||
retention curves are sliding and the team has been losing senior
|
||||
engineers to competitors. I expect a forced raise within 9 months.
|
||||
Moderate-high conviction, ~0.7.
|
||||
|
||||
Bob is a good operator at the right stage. He's wrong-stage for the
|
||||
team-size widget-co is at — too senior for an early-stage problem and
|
||||
too execution-focused for the late-stage strategic moves that would
|
||||
actually save the company. I'd take a meeting with him for a different
|
||||
kind of company.
|
||||
|
||||
The bet I want to record: widget-co either pivots hard in the next 12
|
||||
months or wraps up. The middle path doesn't exist for them given where
|
||||
they are. Conviction ~0.65.
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user